ISW: Russia's advance rate in Ukraine declines sharply since November 2025

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia's rate of advance in Ukraine has steadily declined since November 2025, with losses per square kilometer captured increasing nearly 20-fold. In June 2026, Russian forces captured or entered only 30.42 square kilometers, averaging 1.01 square kilometers per day, compared to 481.25 square kilometers in June 2025 (16.04 sq km/day). The report concludes that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive has not achieved operationally significant gains. The data suggests a dramatic slowdown in Russian territorial conquest amid heavy casualties and Ukrainian countermeasures.

Global Impact

Politically, the slowdown weakens Russia's negotiating position and may encourage Western allies to sustain or increase military aid to Ukraine. Economically, the reduced pace of territorial loss could stabilize Ukrainian agricultural exports and reduce pressure on global grain prices.