Erfen Forecasts Strong El Niño Impact Between November 2026 and March 2027

The National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (CN-Erfen) has maintained an 'Active El Niño Warning' status, reporting that the phenomenon is intensifying and could reach a strong to very strong intensity by late 2026. According to Executive Technical Report No. 004-2026, issued on July 29, the greatest impacts are expected between November 2026 and March 2027, coinciding with the rainy season. The classification of 'strong' or 'very strong' refers to the intensity of oceanic warming, but it does not alone determine the magnitude of rainfall, flooding, or river level increases. The warning is active for the region, with authorities monitoring conditions closely. The report emphasizes that the oceanic warming intensity is a key indicator, but local impacts will depend on various atmospheric and regional factors.

Global Impact

A strong to very strong El Niño can have far-reaching effects on global weather patterns, including altered precipitation in the Americas, Asia, and Africa, potentially affecting agriculture, water resources, and energy demand. Economically, the event could disrupt supply chains for commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and grains, leading to price volatility.