Ukraine Warns Russia May Involve Belarusian Army in War

A Ukrainian security expert warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to involve the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine if the Kremlin needs to rapidly increase troop numbers, potentially during a new mobilization wave this autumn. Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Globalistics "Strategy XXI," stated that Ukrainian defense forces are currently operating on two fronts: bleeding the Russian army through strikes on logistics and resources, and systematically exhausting the enemy by destroying personnel and equipment. He noted that Ukrainian forces eliminate approximately 30,000-35,000 Russian soldiers monthly, while Russia's mobilization machine can recruit a similar number of civilians each month. The expert suggested that if Russia faces a critical manpower shortage, it may pressure Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to commit his forces, potentially leading to a loss of control over the Belarusian military.

Global Impact

A Belarusian military involvement would escalate the war significantly, risking a direct NATO-Russia confrontation if Belarusian territory is used for staging attacks on Ukraine. Politically, it would further isolate Lukashenko and could trigger internal unrest in Belarus, where public support for the war is low.